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10/10/2022
Retail imports at major U.S. container ports are expected to fall to the lowest level in nearly two years by the end of 2022, according to a report from the National Retail Federation.
The monthly Global Port Tracker, released by NRF and Hackett Associates, shows major ports handled 2.26 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) of cargo in August — up 3.5% from July, but down 0.4% compared to August 2021.
Official September logs haven't come in yet, but the report projects 2.07 million TEUs for the month, down 3% year over year, NRF officials said in a press release. October is forecast at 2 million TEUs, down 9.4% YOY; November at 2.01 million TEUs, down 4.9% YOY; and December at 1.96 million TEUs, down 6.1% YOY.
The last time the monthly total fell below 2 million TEUs was in February 2021, when major ports recorded 1.87 million TEUs, NRF officials said.
The growth slowdown is due to multiple factors, said Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett in a press release.
"The growth in U.S. import volume has run out of steam, especially for cargo from Asia," Hackett said. "Recent cuts in carriers’ shipping capacity reflect falling demand for merchandise from well-stocked retailers even as consumers continue to spend. Meanwhile, the closure of factories during China’s October Golden Week holiday along with the Chinese government’s continuing Zero Covid policy have impacted production, reducing demand for shipping capacity from that side of the Pacific as well."
The first half of 2022 totaled 13.5 million TEUs, a 5.5% increase over the first six months of 2021. For the full year, the report expects ports to reach a total of 26 million TEUs, up 0.7%. That would be an annual record for most imports of all time, beating 2021's 25.8 million TEUs.
In 2023, imports are expected to briefly bounce back, though slowdowns are expected in February due to the Lunar New Year shutting down production in Asian countries.
NRF forecasts that 2022 retail sales will grow between 6% and 8% compared to last year. Sales were up 7.5% during the first eight months of 2022, NRF officials said.