Retailers forecast first-half 2026 import decline as tariffs persist

Import volume at major U.S. container ports will likely decline year over year in the first half of 2026 from the impact of U.S. tariff policies on international trade relations, according to a Global Port Tracker (GPT) report issued yesterday by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.

The Trump administration's implementation of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act is under review by the U.S. Supreme Court, but even if they are determined to be illegal, there are concerns the administration could find other avenues to enforce tariffs, NRF officials said in a press release.

"The continuing use of tariffs against friend and foe alike combined with the uncertainty of when or if they will be implemented makes trade forecasting very difficult," said Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett. U.S. tariff policies have brought about a "global change in trade relations," that is impacting import volumes, he added. 

Import volume at the 16 ports tracked by the GPT was "essentially flat" between 2025 and 2024, at 25.4 million 20-foot-equivalent units (TEUs), according to the report. Ports have not yet reported numbers for January, but the GPT projects approximately 2.11 million TEUs for the month, which would be up from December ahead of the Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in Asia, but down 5.2% year over year. 

According to the GPT, volume handled by ports in February is projected to total 1.97 million TEUs, down 3.1% year over year. March volume is projected at 1.89 million TEUs, down 12%, followed by 2.05 million TEUs in April, down 7.1%; 2.13 million TEUs in May, up 9.3%; and 2.12 million TEUs in June, up 8%.