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In February, U.S. railroads’ carloadings declined 1.5 percent compared with February 2009’s volume, according to the Association of American Railroads’ (AAR) “Rail Time Indicators” report for March.

However, 14 of the 19 major commodity categories tracked by the AAR registered gains and, excluding coal volume that tumbled 9.9 percent, carloads rose 7.2 percent year over year.

“Rail traffic trends over the past few months, especially when you take out coal, are consistent with a slowly recovering economy,” said John Gray, AAR senior vice president of policy and economics, in a prepared statement.

Meanwhile, U.S. railroads’ intermodal traffic rose 10.1 percent compared with February 2009’s volume. On a seasonally adjusted basis, U.S. carloads decreased 0.1 percent and intermodal loads dropped 3.6 percent vs. January levels.

“Over the past six months, the upward trend in seasonally adjusted rail traffic indicates an increase in underlying demand,” said Gray.

Demand is increasing in several sectors — notably agricultural products, automotive, chemicals and domestic intermodal — to the point that consensus volume-growth expectations in the 4 percent to 5 percent range are too modest, according to a Robert W. Baird & Co. Inc. “Transportation/Logistics” report issued today.

“Normal seasonal progression suggests that Street volume expectations are too low based on year-to-date and fourth-quarter 2009 volumes compared with the eight-year average sequential progression,” Baird analysts said in the report. “In general, rail volume growth could exceed 10 percent in 2010.”