Tallies, totals and other trend data in the freight transportation realm
12/27/2022
-0.3
FTR’s Shippers Conditions Index improved in October to a barely negative -0.3 reading from September’s -3.1, FTR officials announced on Dec. 22. The greatest improvement resulted from a loosening of capacity utilization to the most favorable climate since May 2020, and freight volume and rates were marginally more favorable in October. “A trend toward weakening diesel prices will aid shipper conditions in the months ahead along with weakening truck utilization which should allow for additional capacity to open up and help stabilize shipper conditions for at least a period of time before things turn negative again in 2023,” said Todd Tranausky, FTR’s vice president of rail and intermodal.
0.4
The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index® fell 0.4% year over year in November, Cass Information Systems Inc. reported on Dec. 13. Month over month, the index fell 1.9%, or 0.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis. “After some noise in recent months related to comparisons and other temporary factors like repositioning mistimed inventory, and consumers getting ahead of rising interest rates, freight volumes settled back to a flattish level in November versus a year ago,” Cass officials said. “[It’s] still a very stable environment overall, but still one with many headwinds. Sharpening declines in imports, into the West Coast in particular, suggest near-term trends could soften further. Normal seasonality from here would have shipments down 5% year over year in December and about flat for the year.”
0.9
“… U.S. GDP rose an annualized 2.9% in Q3 2022 over Q2 2021 — a big improvement over the 1.6% and 0.6% declines in Q1 2022 and Q2 2022, respectively. The first estimate (from a month earlier) was 2.6%. … As we’ve said before, GDP excluding trade and inventories is termed 'final sales to domestic purchasers.' Because it shows what U.S. firms and consumers are spending, many economists think it’s better than overall GDP for gauging the true underlying health of the economy. Final sales rose a revised 0.9% in Q3 2022, much less than overall GDP.” — The Association of American Railroads’ Rail Time Indicators, issued Dec. 7
2
“[Norfolk Southern officials expect] intermodal to grow 2 times GDP in the next five years — a goal that faced some skepticism, warranted perhaps by recent performance, but a goal I, for one, think is achievable, even surpassable. They see service restoration, ecommerce, industrial development, their strategic partnerships, prior bog investment in their ‘Corridors’ as all being key.” — Independent transportation analyst Tony Hatch, reporting on Norfolk Southern Corp.’s Dec. 6 Investor Day, in a Dec. 22 email to his clients
2.5
American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index decreased 2.5% in November after slipping 1.2% in October, ATA officials announced on Dec. 20. In November, the index equaled 114.7 (2015=100) versus 117.6 in October. “For-hire truck tonnage saw the largest single monthly decrease in November since the start of the pandemic and a total drop of 3.7% in October and November,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “The decreases match anecdotal reports of a soft fall freight season as well as a slowing goods-economy generally. Housing-related freight is particularly weak.”
4.2
The 2023 forecast for equipment and software investment growth is 4.2%, according to the 2023 Equipment Leasing & Finance U.S. Economic Outlook, issued Dec. 15 by the Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation. The report also forecasts sluggish U.S. GDP growth of 0.9% (annualized) “due to a mild recession that is expected to begin midway through the year,’ foundation officials said. The report, which focuses on the $1.16 trillion equipment leasing and finance industry, highlights key trends in equipment investment, placing them in the context of the broader U.S. economic climate.
7.7
“Good news: Inflation may have peaked. The consumer price index was 7.7% higher in October 2022 than in October 2021, its smallest year-over-year gain since January 2022. … Still, October’s 7.7% increase is extremely high by historical standards: Since 2000, the average increase has been around 2.0%.” — The Association of American Railroads’ Rail Time Indicators, issued Dec. 7
9
New leasing and finance business volume for November was $8.6 billion, up 9% year-over-year from new business volume in November 2021, according to the Equipment Leasing and Finance Association’s monthly index, which was released Dec. 21. Volume was down 24% from $11.3 billion in October. Year-to-date, cumulative new business volume was up 6% compared to the same 2021 period. The index reports economic activity from 25 companies representing a cross section of the $1 trillion equipment finance sector. Separately, the foundation’s monthly nonfidence Index in December is 45.9, an increase from the November index of 43.7.
79.56 & 83.92
“Oil producers received a Christmas present as oil prices reversed the declining trend with WTI finishing the week up at $79.56 a barrel, with Brent crude ending up at $83.92 a barrel. This was the largest weekly gain since October, which poured cold water on our emerging contango.” — Ernie Barsamian, CEO and principal of The Tank Tiger, a Princeton, New Jersey, terminal storage clearinghouse, broker and intermediary in a Dec. 27 email message to clients
34,300
North American Class 8 net orders for November fell to 34,300, down significantly from September’s 56,000-unit record, FTR officials reported on Dec. 5. “Orders may have declined over the last two months, but compared to last year’s weak results, they are showing tremendous gains,” FTR officials added, noting that while November order activity was down 20% month over month, it was up 254% year over year. Added Jonathan Starks, FTR’s chief executive officer and chief intelligence officer: “The market remains strong despite the economic uncertainties, and production still will be limited to some extent by supply chains and labor.”
14.1 million
“According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, new U.S. light vehicle sales in November 2022 were an annualized and seasonally adjusted 14.1 million, down 6.5% from October 2022’s 15.1 million but up 7.9% from November 2021’s 13.1 million. … Auto industry levels are better than they were, but they’re still below their historical norms. … A shortage of vehicle sales significantly hurt sales earlier this year. That shortage is dissipating, but an uncertain economy, sharply higher interest rates (meaning higher new car financing costs) and lower consumer confidence are threatening to sap new car demand going forward.” — The Association of American Railroads’ Rail Time Indicators, issued Dec. 7
2.1 billion
“[Norfolk Southern Corp.] capex will be ~$2.1B next year, an increase of 13-15% that more than compensates for inflation.” — Independent transportation analyst Tony Hatch, reporting on Norfolk Southern Corp.’s Dec. 6 Investor Day, in a Dec. 22 email to his clients
