Tallies, totals and other trend data in the freight transportation realm
12/8/2023
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On Dec. 6, Reliable Robotics announced it had flown a “large cargo aircraft with no one on board.” On Nov. 21, the aircraft automation systems provider flew a Cessna 208B Caravan with no one on board, a “first for aviation,” company officials said. A remote pilot supervised the uncrewed aircraft from Reliable’s control center 50 miles away. The Cessna Caravan was designed and manufactured by Textron Aviation Inc. Reliable Robotics has been collaborating with Textron Aviation, which includes the Beechcraft, Cessna and Hawker brands, and Textron eAviation focused on sustainable flying. Here’s a link to a 360° experience inside the cockpit: https://youtu.be/0W5JHIHq40Q
0.0
“Rail volumes are faring better against easier comparisons, tracking ~0.0% Y/Y vs. -4.2% Y/Y in Q323 and -0.9% Y/Y in Q422. Pressure on intermodal volume has eased with stabilizing import trends (LA/LB imports +17% Y/Y in October vs. +17% Y/Y in September). By company, QTD volume has been paced by NSC (+2.6% Y/Y vs. -2.0% Y/Y in Q323), UNP (+1.5% Y/Y vs. -2.4% Y/Y in Q323), and CSX (-0.7% Y/Y vs. -3.3% Y/Y in Q323) Performance from UNP is impressive as in just over a quarter’s time Jim Vena has led the team to a sharp re-acceleration in network performance and management de-layering.” — Baird Equity Research’s Garrett Holland in a Dec. 4 report titled “Baird/ Holland/Transports: Q4 Updated: Trappings of a Muted Peak and an Extended Trough”
3 or 4
Inbound cargo volume at the nation’s major container ports should continue to slow in the final weeks of 2023 after reaching its peak later than expected this fall, according to the Global Port Tracker report released Dec. 8 by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates. NRF forecasts that 2023 holiday sales will increase between 3% and 4% over last year, in line with pre-pandemic growth rates, and will hit a record-setting total between $957.3 billion and $966.6 billion.
5 & 74.07
“Citing all kinds of reasons other than the fact that the price of oil just wants to go down, the leaders of OPEC+ tried to convince their members to voluntarily adhere to existing cuts and to actually further curtail production. They ended up looking like Georgia and Ohio State trying to woo the committee to let them into the playoffs. Traders likened this to shares of the Brooklyn Bridge being sold, and oil prices dropped for a sixth consecutive week. WTI ended the week at $74.07. The Brent Spread is close to $5 / barrel, indicating U.S. production growth is real and spectacular.” — Ernie Barsamian, CEO and principal of The Tank Tiger, a Princeton, New Jersey, terminal storage clearinghouse, broker and intermediary in a Dec. 5 email message to clients
9.5
The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index® fell 4.7% month over month in October, “more than reversing the past two months of gains to reach a new cycle low,” Cass Information Systems officials said on Nov. 14. “We note this data set includes automotive, so the UAW strike may have had an impact this this month, which suggests a rebound in the months to come.” Year over year, the index was 9.5% lower in October, after a 6.3% decline in September. “U.S. freight volumes, as measured by the Cass Freight Index, have fallen y/y in 15 of the past 22 months, similar to prior downcycles in both length and magnitude, except for the pandemic downturn,” Cass officials said. “The 2023 peak season is off to a muted start, but we think overall freight volumes are better than those in the for-hire sector measured by Cass data, as private fleet insourcing persists.”
10
“October truck tonnage was down 2.1% for October, the 10th straight month of decline, according to the ATA. And the ATA’s house organ, ‘Transport Topics,’ ran an article about the AV subsidiary of Daimler (“TORC”) running AV testing with an idea of revenue service in ~3 years on the … Laredo-Dallas market, with 1,000-mile hauls being planned. Maybe there are monsters under the bed, after all?” — Independent transportation analyst Tony Hatch in a Nov. 28 message to his clients
24
The Port of Montreal signed strategic cooperation agreement with Vietnam, port officials said on Dec. 5. The cooperation agreement focuses on four work streams: market intelligence and business development; related activities and services; innovation and green technologies; and management and operation of port facilities. “With Asia now accounting for 24% of volumes handled at the Port of Montreal, we are very pleased to contribute to strengthening ties and developing our trade relations with Vietnam,” said Guillaume Brossard, the port’s vice president of development, marketing and international relations. “This cooperation agreement will make it possible for us to position the Port of Montreal as a critical transit hub, and to ensure the implementation of sustainable international supply chains.”
32
FTR reported Class 8 preliminary net orders for November clocked in at 36,750 units, 32% higher than October’s total and up 2% year over year, the market intelligence firm announced on Dec. 4. “Those comparisons fell within expectations given seasonal tendencies and the considerable year-over-year decrease during October,” FTR officials said, adding that the November order increase “shows a market that is still performing at a high level historically.”
41
Coal usage and emissions in the global power sector will peak in 2023, according to independent research and business intelligence company Rystad Energy. “New electricity supply from renewables is expected to outstrip power demand growth, leading to coal’s displacement starting next year and compounding in the years to come,” company officials said on Dec. 3. “As a result, coal-fired generation will fall marginally to 10,332 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2024, down 41 TWh from 2023. This is a relative drop in the ocean, but it’s a sign of things to come as renewables continue their growth trajectory.”
1 million
UPS and the Hong Kong Airport Authority have entered into an agreement designed to improve UPS service to customers and enhance the company’s operations in Asia with a new hub at the Hong Kong International Airport and near the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge, UPS announced on Dec. 4. The new hub will serve as UPS Hong Kong’s main facility for processing and sorting imports, exports, and transshipments to and from Europe, the United States and other parts of Asia. Expected to be completed by 2028, the hub will be built on 20,000 square meters with direct access to aircraft. The facility is being designed to handle close to 1 million tons of annual capacity.
