-0.7
FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index improved in July to a reading of -0.7 from the previous -3.36 “principally because of falling diesel prices,” FTR officials reported on Sept. 22. Although the index was just below the index’s base of zero, it was the third consecutive month of negative readings, something that hadn’t happened since March-May 2020, they added. “Trucking companies had a great run, but freight dynamics clearly have softened,” FTR Vice President of Trucking Avery Vise said. “While the economy and freight markets look more resilient than many observers fear, risks are weighted to the downside.”
2.8
American Trucking Associations’ (ATA) advanced seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index rose 2.8% in August after decreasing 1.5% in July, the ATA reported on Sept. 20. “With the economy in transition to slower growth and changing consumer patterns, we may see more volatility in the months ahead,” ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said. “But the good news is that we continue to witness areas of freight growth in consumer spending and manufacturing, which is helping to offset the weakness in new home construction.”
4
In August, new business volume in the U.S. equipment finance sector clocked in at $8.8 billion, up 4% year-over-year from new business volume in the same 2021 period, according to the Equipment Leasing and Finance Association’s (ELFA) Monthly Leasing and Finance Index, which was released Sept. 26. Volume was down 13% from $10.1 billion in July. “August origination volume reflects an equipment finance industry that is fueling continued growth and expansion of businesses throughout the U.S.,” ELFA President and CEO Ralph Petta said. “Up to this point at least, steadily rising interest rates do not appear to dampen enthusiasm of businesses that prefer the utilization of productive assets versus their ownership, which is the essence of the equipment finance sector.”
4.5
At 4.5, FTR’s Shippers Conditions Index improved in July into a positive range for the first time since September 2020. The index in June was -4.0. The main reason for the improvement? The loosening of capacity utilization and sharply lower diesel prices, FTR reported on Sept. 20. “Sharply lower diesel prices helped push the Shippers Conditions Index into positive territory, but there are unlikely to be similar sharp diesel drops in coming months,” FTR Vice President of Rail and Intermodal Todd Tranausky said, adding that “additional positive momentum” will be driven by the availability of more capacity.
5.3
“Grain: waiting on the harvests … Everyone’s wondering what the immediate future will be after a tough crop year in the U.S. for rails (versus comparisons) and a disastrous one for Canada. August AAR/RTI data showed the broader Ag/Food category up almost 5% in North America, and Grain itself 5.3%. That reflects two things: a narrowing of the YOY declines in Canada (A/F – 4%; Grain -7% — and that’s a good number of late) and a comparison flattering number (A/F +11%; Grain +14%) in the U.S. Mexican grain was off 30%.” — Independent Transportation Analyst Tony Hatch in a Sept. 20 message to his clients
40
“Just as we hoped the world would return to some semblance of normal, the war in Ukraine, pent-up demand, and ongoing tremors from the pandemic have contributed to unprecedented inflation and more uncertainty. Businesses can’t afford to wait for stability. Higher food and energy prices already are impacting consumers, forcing them to change how they shop, save, and work. More than 40% are buying less and over a quarter are delaying major purchases, according to a monthly survey of consumers in the United States, the United Kingdom, China, and Brazil by the Oliver Wyman Forum.” — Oliver Wyman Forum email to clients titled “Ready or Not: The Right Moves,” issued Sept. 25
48.7
On Sept. 22, the Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation released the September Monthly Confidence Index for the Equipment Finance Industry. Overall, confidence in the equipment finance market was 48.7, a decrease from the August index of 50, the foundation reported. "The Fed has made it crystal clear that bringing inflation back to target is its number-one goal,” said survey respondent Bruce Winter, president of FSG Capital Inc. “More increases to the Fed funds rate are coming, as is quantitative tightening to the tune of $95 billion per month. Highly leveraged participants in our industry will pay the price, as well as highly leveraged borrowers/lessees. While the definition of a true recession is being hotly debated, there is little doubt that more challenging times are ahead and the hopes of a ‘soft landing’ are much less likely.”
60
In an online poll Container xChange conducted this month of 150 freight forwarders, non-vessel operating common carriers (NVOCCs) and traders, 60% of the respondents are finding it “difficult to keep a track of pick-up and drop-off of containers, their location and the timestamps thereof,” according to Container xChange, a technology marketplace/operating platform for container logistics firms. The poll, the results for which were released Sept. 21, also showed that 57% of the freight forwarder respondents point to containers as their biggest challenge in the coming peak season; 43% cited lack of real-time visibility as the second biggest challenge.
69.8
In August, 17,811 trucks were exported from Mexico, a 69.8% increase compared with the same 2021 period, according to a Sept. 23 Facebook post from Anpact A.C., an association representing Mexico’s heavy-vehicle manufacturers.
79 & 89
79 & 89 — “The 1970s are famous for bell-bottoms and the rise of disco, but it was also an era of economic struggle, cultural change and technological innovation. Feeling that nostalgia, oil prices visited the 70’s last week as they posted a fourth straight week of declines and fell to their lowest level since January. Stoking this fear was the much discussed economic downturn which would theoretically stifle world energy demand. On Friday, the price of WTI [West Texas Intermediate] dropped almost 5% to trade at $79 per barrel while Brent crude fell below $87 per barrel. The stock market was chirping ‘hey what about me?’ as the major indexes retreated back into bear market territory as well, hitting lows for the year.” — the Sept. 27 edition of The Tank Tiger Bulletin, issued by Ernie Barsamian, CEO and principal of The Tank Tiger, a Princeton, New Jersey-based terminal storage clearinghouse, broker and intermediary
97.2
97.2 — “Trinity Industries reported lease fleet utilization of 97.2% and new rail-car orders of 4,335 units and deliveries of 2,510 units in its second quarter (industry wide rail-car deliveries for the full year are expected to be between 40,000 and 50,000 units).” — Sept. 26 newsletter from RESIDCO titled “Supply Chain Disruptions Bolster Equipment Demand.” RESIDCO is a transportation equipment lessor and asset management company that operates and manages a freight-car and locomotive fleet.
3.6 billion
“The Greenbrier Companies reported new rail-car backlogs of $3.6 billion and continued high lease fleet utilization in its rail leasing subsidiary.” — Sept. 26 newsletter from RESIDCO titled “Supply Chain Disruptions Bolster Equipment Demand.” RESIDCO is a transportation equipment lessor and asset management company that operates and manages a freight-car and locomotive fleet.
