Tallies, totals and other trend data in the freight transportation realm

~0.4

"The Tax Foundation estimates Trump’s current trade proposal would reduce GDP growth by ~0.4% before impacts from other pro-growth (example: tax-reform) or productivity-enhancing (examples: energy reform, deregulation) policies." — Baird Equity Research’s Garrett Holland in a Jan. 28 report titled "Baird/Holland/Transports: Tariff Watch: Headlines Volatile but Unlikely to Derail Improving Outlook"

0.66

On Feb. 6, S&P Global Ratings issued a report titled "How Might Trump's Tariffs — If Fully Implemented — Affect U.S. Growth, Inflation And Rates?" In the report, S&P officials noted the tariffs initially announced on Feb. 1 could cause, according to S&P's estimate, a one-time 0.66% increase in U.S. consumer prices, assuming all of those tariffs take effect and remain in place through 2025. Up to four-fifths of that increase would be due to the tariffs on Canada and Mexico, they said on Feb. 7, a day after issuing the report. They also added: "Our rough estimate also sees U.S. real GDP over the next 12 months being 0.6% lower than what we're currently forecasting."

2.3

FTR’s Shippers Conditions Index improved by one point in November to 2.3 due mostly to lower fuel costs, "indicating a modestly favorable market for shippers," FTR officials said on Jan. 27.  A "marginal loosening of capacity" also resulted in better market conditions in November, they said. “As we enter 2025, shippers should expect a more balanced market but not one that is especially tough, at least not by the standards of years like 2021 and 2018," added FTR Vice President of Trucking Avery Vise.

3 & 5

"New tariffs and latent price fatigue could challenge the profitability of U.S. capital goods firms, according to a Feb. 6 article published by S&P Global Ratings titled "U.S. Capital Goods Brief: Tariffs Would Test Pricing Power." On Feb. 1, the Trump administration announced new tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, which account for an estimated 45% of key imported material inputs for rated U.S. capital goods firms, S&P officials said. "While the situation is in flux, if enacted, the announced tariffs could increase the U.S. capital goods sector’s total costs by 3%-5%," S&P officials said.

~3

Norfolk Southern Corp.'s "initial 2025 outlook calls for ~3% revenue growth," >150 million of productivity savings year over year (compared with ~300 million in 2024), ~150 bps of operating ratio improvement year over year, capex of ~$2.2 billion and share buyback starting in the first quarter, according to Baird Equity Research’s Garrett Holland in a Jan. 29 report titled "Baird/NSC/Holland: Q424 Review: Operating Momentum Building Under PSR 2.0"

3.02

FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index for November increased to 3.02 from 0.49 in October, the "strongest" measure since April 2022, FTR officials said on Jan. 16. "The improved TCI stems from lower fuel costs and less challenging rates, partially offset by weaker utilization," they said, adding they expect the truck freight market to be "consistently favorable" in the second quarter.

4

According to the 2024 Women in Trucking (WIT) Index, only 4% of the technical positions in trucking — specifically, diesel technicians and mechanics in corporations with for-hire or private fleets in the commercial freight transportation industry — are filled by women. According to the American Trucking Associations, the industry will need about 200,000 technicians over the next 10 years to keep up with current truck maintenance demands. "There's a severe shortage of diesel technicians in the trucking industry, and women can play a key role in addressing this gap,” said WIT President and CEO Jennifer Hedrick in the WIT Blog, issued Feb. 7, adding that the WIT Foundation provides scholarships to women seeking technical training.

4.1

The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index® declined 7.3% month over month in December, more than half of which was seasonal, Cass Information Systems Inc. reported on Jan. 14. In seasonally adjusted terms, the index fell 3.1% month over month, compared with a 2.8% gain in November. "After rising 13% in 2021 and 0.6% in 2022, the index declined 5.5% in 2023 and another 4.1% in 2024," Cass officials said. 

7.5 & 11

From July 1, 2024, through Dec. 31, 2024, the Georgia Ports Authority handled more than 2.8 million TEUs in fiscal year-to-date 2025 (July 1 – Dec. 31), an increase of 11.4% or nearly 300,000 TEUs, at the Port of Savannah, port authority officials announced on Jan. 28. During the same period, the authority also handled 443,763 units of roll-on/roll-off cargo, an increase of 7.5 or 31,125 units, at the Port of Brunswick, they said.

31.1

Respondents to the January Logistics Manager's Index (LMI) Report® LMI "predict stable transportation capacity over the next 12 months ... while transport prices are expected to climb," wrote Baird Equity Research's Garrett Holland in a Feb. 4 report. The transport price-capacity spread "is expected to favorably widen to +31.1 (vs. +17.8) and signals a strengthening pricing cycle, all else equal," Holland wrote.

78 & 81

"Uncertainties around tariffs [are] reshaping global trade flows, forcing container logistics players to rethink sourcing strategies and market access," Container xChange officials wrote in a report issued Feb. 6 titled "Surviving Trade War 2.0 in 2025: How Strategic Partnerships Can Help Container Logistics Businesses." According to results of a survey included in the report, 81% of container logistics businesses are "actively building new partnerships beyond traditional trade routes," but 78% of the respondents are struggling to establish "reliable partnerships due to increasing geopolitical risks and supply chain disruptions." Added Container xChange CEO Christian Roeloffs: "In the short run, leasing companies may see higher profits, but in the long run, increased costs will trickle down to consumers, dampening demand. Strategic partnerships across multiple geographies are now critical for businesses to remain resilient against mounting trade, economic and demand pressures."

40.46 billion

Valued at $36.32 billion in 2024, the global freight transport market is expected to reach $40.46 billion in 2025 and grow to $95.96 billion by 2033, growing at a compounded annual rate of 11.4% during the forecast period (2025-2033), according to a report issued Jan. 27 by Straits Research. "The rapid expansion of e-commerce continues to be a major driver of growth in the global freight transport market, as consumers increasingly expect fast and reliable delivery solutions," Straits Research officials said. "This trend is particularly evident in urban areas, where the demand for efficient last-mile delivery is soaring due to the growing popularity of online shopping." As a result, freight service providers are making "significant investments in cutting-edge logistics solutions," including automated warehouses, optimized delivery routes and real-time tracking systems, Straits Research officials said.