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By year's end, cargo volume at major U.S. container ports is expected to decline 6 percent vs. 2007's level — a slightly steeper drop than projected a month ago, according to the latest monthly Port Tracker report issued by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Global Insight.

Volume is forecasted to total 15.5 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) compared with 2007's 16.5 million TEUs. In August, Port Tracker predicted 2008 volume would decline 4 percent. However, year-over-year increases previously projected in October and December no longer are anticipated, the report states.
 
"Retailers are tightening up their inventories to reflect what they expect to be able to sell during the holiday season," said NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold in a prepared statement. "We still expect to see an increase in sales this year, but the economy is clearly challenging and our industry is trying to hit the balance point between supply and demand as closely as they can."

U.S. ports surveyed in July handled 1.32 million TEUs, up 2.6 percent vs. June's total but down 8.3 percent compared with July 2007's level. Port Tracker projects August volume at 1.38 million TEUs, down 5.8 percent year over year; September volume at 1.35 million TEUs, down 8.6 percent; and October volume at 1.4 million TEUs, down 2.9 percent. November volume totaling 1.3 million TEUs will decline 5.3 percent and December volume totaling 1.27 million TEUs will decrease 0.4 percent, NRF and Global Insight predict.

Port Tracker analyzes inbound container volume, the availability of rail cars and trucks at ports, labor conditions, and other factors that affect cargo movement and congestion.