NRF: Import cargo enters lull as Red Sea disruptions continue

Inbound cargo volume at major U.S. container ports is expected to gradually lessen during the first quarter of 2024 before beginning to build again in the spring, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.

"This is the traditional slowdown when the supply chain gets a break after the busy holiday season, but there’s always a new challenge on the horizon," said NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold in a press release. "Attacks on cargo ships in the Red Sea have been in the headlines and the disruptions caused by those attacks have once again created volatility in retail supply chains. Retailers are working with their carrier partners on mitigation strategies to limit the impact, but we are seeing longer transit times and increased costs as a result."

Any effects from the Red Sea attacks are expected to more highly impact East Coast ports.

U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.89 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in November 2023 — the latest month for which final figures are available — down 8% from the 2.06 million TEUs logged in October, which was the busiest month of 2023 and the peak of the fall shipping season, NRF officials said. But on a year-over-year basis, November volume climbed 6.6%.

December 2023 volume is projected at 1.89 million TEUs, which would be a 9% gain year over year. That figure would bring 2023 total volume to 22.3 million TEUs, which would constitute a 12.8% decline from 2022's mark, NRF officials said.

This month, volume is expected to rise to 1.92 million TEUs — up 6.1% versus January 2023's total — before slowing for the remainder of the quarter, they said.