NRF: Retailers prepare for potential second ILA strike, Trump tariffs

Container ports are expecting a surge in imports through next spring, according to a report by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.

The predicted increase is due, in part, to another potential labor strike at East and Gulf Coast ports, and President-elect Donald Trump’s announced plans to increase tariffs.

Forecasted port activity for the remainder of this year and into the spring months of 2025 has risen since the Oct. 1–3 East Coast and Gulf Coast ports strike and the presidential election, NRF officials said in a press release.

The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA), the union representing workers at the East Coast and Gulf Coast ports, and the U.S. Maritime Alliance (USMX) reached a temporary contract extension that runs out Jan. 15, 2025.  However, talks on a new contract have been unsuccessful, leaving potential for another strike.

The two sides came to the bargaining table in November, but after a day and a half, talks halted when USMX negotiators introduced their intent to implement semi-automation, ILA leaders said on the union website. 

NRF last week led a coalition of trade associations in sending a letter to both parties asking them to return to the bargaining table and find a solution to the disagreement over automation.

“It is critical that our ports and terminals have the ability to modernize their systems and processes in order to remain globally competitive and be able to handle the continuing rise of trade volumes, both imports and exports, through our ports,” the letter states.

Meanwhile, Trump has said he will increase a range of tariffs once he takes office on Jan. 20, 2025, although no implementation timeline is in place. Retailers are “under pressure” as they frontload cargo to avoid strike disruption and higher costs from tariffs, Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said. 

According to Global Port Tracker, U.S. ports handled 2.25 million 20-foot equivalent units in October, although the Port of Miami hasn’t reported its final data. That was down 1.2% from September but up 9.3% year over year.