Retailers: Container imports will remain high in spring despite threat of tariffs

Imports at major container ports are expected to remain high throughout spring, but volumes could drop this summer depending on the uncertainty over tariffs, according to a Global Port Tracker (GPT) report released this week by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.

Retailers are importing lots of merchandise ahead of potentially rising tariffs. President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods that have doubled from 10% to 20% are concerning, NRF officials said yesterday in a press release. Hypothetical reciprocal tariffs and potential Chinese ship docking fees are also causing uncertainty, they said.

“Given that a significant portion of the global container fleet has been built in China, this means that there will be further costs that will be passed on to cargo owners and ultimately the consumer,” Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, said.

U.S. ports covered by the GPT handled 2.22 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in January, up 4.4% from December 2024 and up 13.4% year over year. Ports have yet to report February numbers, but the GPT projects the month at 2.07 million TEUs, up 6.1% year over year. That would be the busiest February in three years, NRF officials said.

The GPT also forecasts the following volumes over the next several months: March at 2.14 million TEUs, up 10.8% year over year; April at 2.13 million TEUs, up 5.7%; May at 2.14 million TEUs, up 2.8%; June at 2.07 million TEUs, down 3.2%; and July at 1.99 million TEUs, down 13.9%.

While retailers’ reactions to tariffs may be related to a decrease in volume in June and July 2025 over last year, imports were also elevated last summer as retailers brought in excess cargo ahead of the East Coast and Gulf Coast ports strike, which occurred Oct. 1-3, 2024, NRF officials said.