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8/9/2022
After a record-setting spring, imports at the nation's major container ports are expected to slow significantly for the remainder of the year, but 2022 volume should still register a net gain over 2021, according to a Global Port Tracker report issued yesterday by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
"Retail sales are still growing, but the economy is slowing down, and that is reflected in cargo imports,” said NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold in a press release.
Lower volumes may help ease congestion at the nation’s ports. However, other global supply-chain challenges are not yet over, Gold said.
"Our biggest concern is the potential for disruption because of separate labor negotiations at the West Coast ports and the freight railroads. Concluding both sets of negotiations without disruption is critical as the important holiday season approaches," Gold said.
The contract between the International Longshore and Warehouse Union and the Pacific Maritime Association expired July 1, and many retailers brought in cargo early and shifted to East and Gulf Coast ports to avoid any potential disruptions related to contract negotiations, with early shipments helping drive second-quarter volumes.
At the same time, the major freight railroads and unions that represent rail workers are working with a Presidential Emergency Board to resolve their contract discussions, which have been going on for the past two years.
Moreover, the Port of Oakland was briefly shut down in late July amid protests by independent truckers over a new state law aimed at eliminating independent owner-operators.
"The heady days of growth in imports are quickly receding,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said. “The outlook is for a decline in volumes compared with 2021 over the next few months, and the decline is expected to deepen in 2023."
NRF continues to forecast that 2022 retail sales will grow between 6% to 8% over 2021. Sales rose 7% in the year's first half.