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In the third quarter, rail-car orders reached 20,165 units compared with 16,900 units in the second quarter, 36,903 units in the first quarter and 9,194 units in third-quarter 2010, according to the American Railway Car Institute (ARCI) Committee of the Railway Supply Institute.

“Overall, orders were generally better than feared, considering the noteworthy deceleration in year-over-year rail traffic growth during the third quarter. The data continues to suggest a continued upcycle,” said Jefferies & Co. analysts in a synopsis of ARCI’s rail-car data. “We generally view anything above 10,000 quarterly orders as a positive indicator, with 7,000 to 10,000 quarterly orders generally needed over time to keep the backlog flat, assuming annual deliveries ate in the 35,000 range.”

Car deliveries rose to 12,519 units in the third quarter compared with 10,605 units in the second quarter, 7,648 units in the first quarter and 3,706 units in third-quarter 2010, according to ARCI data. As of Oct. 1, the car backlog stood at 65,044 units versus 57,308 units on July 1, 51,913 units on April 1 and 22,658 units on Dec. 31, 2010.

“We expect deliveries to increase over the next several quarters, as the backlog continues to trend north of one year and continues to increase,” Jefferies & Co. analysts said.