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An “explosion” of rail-car orders in first-quarter 2011 prompted officials at Economic Planning Associates Inc. (EPA) to increase their projections for rail-car deliveries in 2011 to 36,900, according to the firm’s April “Rail Car Overview” report.

During the first quarter, orders were placed for 36,903 cars and intermodal platforms, representing the highest quarterly total since fourth-quarter 1997, according to the report. Backlogs jumped from 22,658 units at the end of December to 51,913 units at the end of March. At current production levels, the backlog represents 6.8 quarters of assemblies, the highest level since EPA began calculating the ratio in 1992, the firm said.

As a result, parts and components availability could be limited, which has “turned us somewhat cautious with regard to total deliveries in 2011 and 2012,” EPA said, adding that “we view our 2011 and 2012 deliveries estimates as conservative and will raise these forecasts as conditions improve.”

“Nonetheless, we are enthused by the latest acceleration in demand and we expect continued expansion of customer market activities to keep demand on an upward trend during the next two years,” EPA said in the rail-car overview.

The firm expects deliveries of 43,000 units in 2012 and 47,800 units in 2013, and reach 62,500 units by 2016.