Transit Outlook '25: For agency leaders, finding ways to gain more riders without cutting services or raising fares is a major challenge

Compiled by Bridget Dean, Associate Editor

Over the past year, transit agencies have both faced challenges and garnered opportunities. Ridership and budgetary concerns remain top of mind, even as the chapter closes on the fifth year since the COVID-19 pandemic struck.

How people are using public transit has changed since then, and although ridership for most agencies is trending back to 2019 levels, the high number of those working from home has drastically and irreversibly cut weekday commuter ridership. However, more agencies are gaining weekend, special event and leisure ridership, sometimes at levels exceeding pre-2019 counts.

Federal pandemic relief funding is running low for a number of agencies, too. Some might need a completely new funding formula in the next few years as they balance keeping fares low, updating and replacing aging infrastructure, improving security measures and expanding service.

Since cutting services or increasing fares would potentially damage ridership rates that are beginning to resemble pre-pandemic levels, many agencies are turning to federal, state and local governments to provide the necessary funds via budgetary shifts or grants to support their operating and capital budgets.

Even though ridership remains a thorny issue, expansions are expected to continue across major public transportation systems. Through expanding lines to add additional stops, shifting trains from weekday to weekend service, and adding more service to the most in-demand routes, myriad agencies are adapting to new ridership trends and preparing for future growth.

To better understand how the past year’s challenges played out across the United States and what service and budgetary changes might be coming over the next year, Progressive Railroading reached out to the following transit agency leaders via email to gain their perspectives: Richard Dalton, CEO of the Virginia Railway Express (VRE); Jim Derwinski, CEO and executive director of Metra; Collie Greenwood, general manager and CEO of the Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit Authority (MARTA); Debra Johnson, general manager and CEO of Denver’s Regional Transportation District (RTD); Robert Powers, general manager of the Bay Area Transportation District (BART); and Stephanie Wiggins, CEO of the Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority (L.A. Metro).

Richard Dalton
VRE

Jim Derwinski
Metra

Collie Greenwood
MARTA

Debra Johnson
RTD

Robert Powers
BART

Stephanie Wiggins
L.A. Metro

How have ridership levels changed over the past five years, and where is your ridership heading?

Dalton: VRE ridership continues to trend upward, albeit more modestly this year. We anticipate about a 7% increase in average daily ridership (ADR) in 2024 over last year. ADR grew more than 50% from 2021 to 2022, and 30% between 2022 and 2023. Through October of this year, monthly ADR ranged from a low of 6,031 to a high of 6,961. Our preliminary fiscal-year 2026 budget estimates an annual ADR of 9,000.

As VRE moves from a commuter-rail to regional-rail model, we anticipate additional ridership growth. The commonwealth’s recent purchase of the Manassas Line from Norfolk Southern Railway and its $4 billion Transforming Rail in Virginia initiative will allow VRE to increase service and adjust schedules to meet times of greatest demand. In the interim, we are looking at weekday schedule enhancements to make our service more attractive and adding Saturday service.

Derwinski: The pandemic dealt a heavy blow to transit ridership across the industry, with Metra ridership falling to a low of 14 million in 2021 from 74 million in 2019 due to government and employers’ stay-at-home orders. Since that time, ridership has steadily increased and continues to do so. We expect that we will end 2024 with 37 million passenger trips in 2024, a 14% increase from 2023. Our 2025 forecast pegs ridership at 39 million, which would be a 7% increase from 2024.

We saw changes in ridership patterns even before the start of the pandemic due to the increasing numbers of companies permitting employees to work from home and more people choosing to ride off-peak and on weekends.

The pandemic reinforced these trends, and we have worked to adapt our schedules to the new norms by adding more off-peak and weekend trains and creating service patterns that are easier for riders to understand. We are continuing to evaluate and adjust our schedules and are currently working on plans to expand service on our Milwaukee District West and North Central Service lines. On weekdays, we are currently running 96% of the trains we ran pre-COVID (665 today vs. 692). On Saturdays, we are running 101% (276 today vs. 273). And on Sundays, we are running 112% (203 today vs. 181).

Greenwood: MARTA continues to build back its bus and rail ridership to pre-COVID levels. Bus ridership is at around 60% to 70% pre-pandemic levels, and rail remains at around 50% to 60% of what it was. Ridership on the streetcar system and on our paratransit services, MARTA Mobility, have fully returned.

Our ridership has been slower to bounce back compared to cities like New York and Washington, D.C., which have a higher modal share for transit. Between 25% to 40% of the population in those cities uses public transit, while in Atlanta, we have a transit modal share of around 7%. Atlanta continues to have a strong car culture and has invested significantly in its road infrastructure. Additionally, Atlanta is consistently ranked among the best cities in which to work remotely, which has translated into a decline in transit use.

However, Atlanta’s population continues to grow and is expected to reach 8 million by 2050. Transit demand will grow as new residents arrive and the ridership base increases, and the roads become even more congested.

MARTA is making improvements to our transit service and experience, like our NextGen Bus Network redesign, transit-oriented development, new state-of-the-art rail cars and MARTA Rapid BRT service. Our goal is not just to return to pre-COVID ridership numbers, but to surpass them.

Johnson: Ridership in 2019 through 2023 was 105.8 million, 52.6 million, 49.0 million, 61.6 million and 65.2 million. The COVID-19 pandemic and the associated change in travel patterns due to remote work and remote education impacted RTD’s ridership during this period. More pronounced ridership reductions were experienced on those bus routes and rail lines with historically higher commuter usage, whereas several fixed routes experienced little change. Modest annual ridership increases are anticipated to continue as boardings continue to trend higher.

Powers: October 2024 ridership increased 8% compared to October 2023, but is still about 55% below the pre-pandemic peak. Generally, ridership is on a slow upward trend.

The number of unique BART riders has recovered by 72%, whereas their trips have only recovered by 43%. This shows that while people are returning to transit, they are not riding as often. Most riders are taking fewer trips per week with the advent of more widespread remote work.

Wiggins: L.A. Metro, like all transit agencies, saw a significant drop in ridership beginning in April 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. While our system continued to operate for our region’s essential workers, ridership began to recover after work from home restrictions were lifted and people felt more comfortable getting out again. Since then, Metro ridership has grown steadily and in September 2024 reached the 1 million weekday rider milestone for the first time since the pandemic and marked the 22nd consecutive month of year-over-year growth.

Metro’s recovery has been supported by a bus network restructure plan (NextGen Bus Plan) and with greater emphasis on the shorter distance and off-peak rider. Our rail service is also being gradually restored with extra investment in off-peak train frequencies and some new line openings.

We have seen significant growth in our leisure ridership and believe this is where we will continue to acquire new riders. Big events that attract hundreds of thousands of fans into Los Angeles, such as the Dodgers World Series celebratory parade, are drawing riders to Metro, many of whom are learning how to navigate the system for the first time, and who are seeing how easy, safe and reliable it is to “go Metro.” On the Dodgers parade day in November, Metro saw approximately 80,000 additional rides on our rail system.

Aside from ridership, what are the key challenges facing your agency in the coming year?

Dalton: What goes hand in glove with ridership is fare revenue, a challenge for many commuter-rail service providers. While VRE has been a good steward of its federal pandemic assistance funds, we expect they will be depleted sometime in fiscal-year 2028. Increasing fare revenue, while keeping our service affordable to riders, is something we are focused on in both the near and long terms.

Derwinski: Funding has always been a challenge for both operations and capital. Federal COVID relief funding has allowed us to maintain service levels and rebuild our ridership, but those funds are expected to run out in 2026. This isn’t a problem that can be solved through the farebox or through service cuts, and if new sources of operating funding aren’t forthcoming from state or federal sources, Metra and the Chicago region’s transit providers are going to be faced with very tough decisions that will have widespread impact on our region. We are fully engaged with the legislature in Springfield to make the case that properly funding transportation is a worthwhile and essential investment.

Greenwood: First, it’s important to note that while other transit systems face fiscal challenges, MARTA is in a strong financial position with some of the best credit ratings among U.S. transit agencies. This reflects MARTA’s financial stability, sound accounting and responsible public fund management.

MARTA is also in a transformative period as we are currently underway with the largest modernization and expansion effort in our history. Next year, MARTA will launch the NextGen Bus Network, a redesign of our entire bus network to better align with Atlanta’s changing geography and demographics and provide faster, more efficient and more equitable service.

We are also constructing the region’s first bus rapid transit (BRT) line, MARTA Rapid Summerhill, which features electric buses, rail-like stations and key connections to MARTA’s heavy-rail system. Additional rapid routes are planned for the Clifton Corridor, Campbellton Road and Clayton County, with efforts to bring BRT along Interstate 285 express lanes in partnership with our regional stakeholders.

Juggling multiple large expansion projects is going to be challenging in the coming year and beyond, but this important work will improve transit and connectivity across the region for generations to come.

Johnson: Key initiatives for RTD will continue to be attracting and retaining people power, the personal security of customers and agency employees, and maintaining assets in a state of good repair. These undertakings are geared toward enhancing the customer experience, which in turn may yield expanded usage of the transit system.

Powers: In the coming years, BART will require financial assistance to cover around 70% of its operating costs as one-time federal and emergency funding runs out. Before the pandemic, BART covered about 60% of its operating costs through passenger fares but, as noted above, that funding model is no longer feasible.

BART needs a dedicated, new funding source. This new funding could come from the state, the region, or a combination of both. Securing this funding is BART’s greatest challenge.

Wiggins: Nothing is more important to Metro than addressing public safety on our system. We must keep our customers and employees safe — and ensure they feel safe, too. While there is still work to be done, we’ve made progress securing the LA Metro system by increasing the visible presence of uniformed personnel, enhancing access control to ensure the system is being used only for its intended purpose — transit — and continuing to partner with the county, the cities and regional agencies to address societal issues such as homelessness, untreated mental illness and drug addiction.

Furthering our commitment to public safety, this year the L.A. Metro board unanimously approved the establishment of the Metro Transit Community Public Safety Department (TCPSD). This in-house policing function will enhance coordination, improve response times and ensure that the specific needs of riders are met with a tailored approach. This holistic manner not only bolsters security but also fosters a safer and more supportive environment for all Metro users.

Metro’s TCPSD will be implemented over a five-year period with current contract law enforcement agencies cooperating with the transition.

What will be your biggest capital project in the coming year?

Dalton: VRE’s new 600-space garage will come online in 2025. The $35 million garage includes a pedestrian bridge providing grade-separated access to the Manassas Park station. The project is an integral part of the City Center Redevelopment District, a proposed transit-accessible, high-density, mixed-use town center for Manassas Park.

Improvements to VRE’s Alexandria station and construction of a replacement station in Crystal City are the next major starts. VRE’s $44 million station project in Alexandria is part of larger state-funded program of improvements in the area, which includes the replacement of two rail bridges and the construction of 6 miles of a fourth railroad track running north into Arlington County. The fourth track will connect to a new rail bridge being constructed over the Potomac River, which will allow for the separation of freight and passenger trains.

VRE’s new Crystal City station includes an island platform to allow for the simultaneous boarding of two full-length trains. The $69 million station is designed to accommodate both Amtrak trains and a proposed pedestrian/bicycle connection between the station and Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport.

Derwinski: In terms of scope, the biggest capital project on Metra’s timeline is the replacement of 11 railroad bridges from Fullerton Avenue to Cornelia Avenue in Chicago on the Union Pacific North Line. These bridges are 120 years old and, along with the adjacent retaining walls, the bridges have surpassed their functional lifespan and can no longer be economically repaired and maintained.

Preparations and design have been underway for the past several years. We expect to start construction in 2025, with completion expected in 2030. Construction costs are estimated at $337 million with $279.1 million currently allocated for its implementation ($6 million from 2019 Federal Transit Administration 5337 State of Good Repair Funds; $156.1 million from Rebuild Illinois Bond Funds; and $117 million from the Mega Program created by the federal Bipartisan Infrastructure Law).

And in 2026, we expect delivery of the first of 200 new state-of-the-art, multilevel rail cars that we ordered from Alstom Transportation.

Greenwood: Our biggest capital project for the coming year is the procurement our new CQ400 rail cars. The first rail cars will arrive for testing early next year and the plan is to have them in service by mid-year. We gathered a significant amount of public feedback to ensure the new trains were customer focused. Featuring open gangways, improved lighting and more comfortable seating, charging stations and digital screens, the state-of-the-art trains are safer and more purpose-built to improve the customer experience. I can’t wait for our customers to get on board.

We’ll also continue our $1 billion station rehabilitation program, with the goal of making safety improvements and aesthetic enhancements at all 38 rail stations. Next year, work will continue at our two busiest stations, Airport and Five Points, as well as at the Indian Creek, Brookhaven, East Lake and H.E. Holmes stations.

The 2026 World Cup is quickly approaching, and while some of this work will be complete when Atlanta hosts the world, this program is designed to be an ongoing commitment to our current and future customers.

Johnson: The largest capital project in 2025 involves continuing light-rail reconstruction efforts to maintain a state of good repair for existing infrastructure following 30 years of usage. Aside from a feasibility study regarding RTD’s Northwest Rail corridor, the agency has not planned for any expansionary projects, having completed many elements of its FasTracks expansion project over the last decade.

In future years beyond 2025, RTD plans to continue infrastructure reconstruction projects in support of maintaining the current transit system.

Powers: BART’s top priority capital project is the replacement of all its fare gates, more than 700 systemwide. Other large projects include:

• the continued replacement of BART’s rail-car fleet. As of early November, BART had received 825 of the eventual fleet of 1,200 rail cars;
• modernizing the train control system to a state-of-the-art communications-based train control system. As of early November, the project was about to begin the construction phase;
• system rebuilding through a combination of programs to replace rail infrastructure, traction power equipment, and repairing tunnels and structures; and
• replacement of escalators and the construction of canopies over entrances at all four downtown San Francisco stations.

Wiggins: he coming year is a very big year for L.A. Metro as we will open more major capital projects than we ever have in one year. In early 2025, the opening of the LAX/Metro Transit Center Station will provide a much-needed connection to LAX for Angelenos and visitors as we move closer to the 2026 World Cup, the 2027 Super Bowl and the 2028 Olympic and Paralympic Games.

In summer 2025, Metro will open an extension to the A Line in the San Gabriel Valley from its current terminus in Azusa all the way to Pomona.

Finally, the D Line subway extension, which extends our D Line subway from the current terminus of Wilshire/Western all the way to Wilshire/La Cienega, has a planned opening in fall 2025.

Email questions or comments to bridget.dean@tradepress.com.