-6.5
At -6.5, FTR's Shippers Conditions Index (SCI) for September improved only slightly from the August reading of -6.8 with market conditions stalled at a level unfavorable for shippers, FTR officials said on Dec. 2. The slight movement "reflects market conditions that have barely budged as tougher freight rates and higher fuel costs offset an easing utilization," they said, adding that rising fuel costs are expected to push the SCI lower in October. "The outlook generally is for little improvement in shippers' conditions over the next year," FTR officials said.
0
"Indicators released over the past month that are clearly good include manufacturing output (in October it was the highest since March 2019); the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index (it shows no sign [RailPrime note: "no sign" as in 0, as in zero chance] of turning down); the indexes from the Institute for Supply Management (they show solid forward momentum for both services and manufacturing)." — from Association of American Railroads' Rail Time Indicators, issued Dec. 3
4
Union Pacific Railroad "lowered its 2021 forecast (bowing to the inevitable so therefore not 'news' IMHO) — volume gains of +4% RTM (from 5%), productivity gains of $250mm (from $350mm) and annual OR improvement of 150bps (170). Interestingly, UP cited its international intermodal decline, noting that increased transloading at LALB hurt them in share (vs. BNSF) as they lean toward "intact" (40' INTL boxes) moving eastbound." — independent transportation analyst Tony Hatch, in a Dec. 2 message to his clients
7.8
Women made up 7.8% of the U.S. truck driver workforce in 2020, a percentage that represents an all-time high, American Trucking Associations officials said Dec. 2 in releasing "Trucking Trends 2021." Minorities account for 42.3% of truck drivers, they said. Overall, trucking employed 7.65 million people in industry-related jobs, including 3.36 million professional truck drivers.
8
"Spot truckload rates (dry van, ex-fuel) are tracking +8% Y/Y in November vs. +5% in October, +11% in September, and +12% Y/Y in August. Growth rates have slowed in recent months, but the two-year stacked comp remains strong at +62% Y/Y vs. +67% in October." — Baird Senior Research Analyst Garrett Holland said in a Dec. 1 email titled "Q4 Update: Just as Peak Looking Manageable, Omicron Shows Up"
23
"Coal will account for approximately 23% of U.S. electricity generation in 2021, up from 19% in 2020. In its most recent Short Term Energy Outlook released on November 9, the Energy Information Administration predicted that U.S. coal consumption in 2022 will be around 536 million tons, down around 560 million in 2021. The peak year for U.S. coal consumption was 2007 at 1.13 billion tons." — from Association of American Railroads' Rail Time Indicators, issued Dec. 3
30
"Indicators released over the past month that are clearly not good include inflation (in October it was at a 30-year high); new car sales (which are down sharply because of insanely low dealer inventories); consumer confidence (which fell in November largely because of inflation fears); and the 210,000 net new jobs that were created in November, far below the 500,000+ that most economists predicted." — from Association of American Railroads' Rail Time Indicators, issued Dec. 3
68.9 & 80.1
The American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI) on Dec. 2 released the results of an analysis examining the motivators for why truck drivers choose to be a company driver or an owner-operator/independent contractor (OO/IC). Both ranked income as an important motivator and in terms of satisfaction — 68.9 percent of company drivers and 80.1 percent of OO/IC indicated being "very satisfied/satisfied" with their income, according the ATRI study. Over 50 percent of OO/IC reported net incomes of over $75,000 in the previous year; nearly 70 percent of company drivers indicated their annual wages fell in the $50,000 to $100,000 range.
200
"The Drewry World Container Index composite is down ~11% from the September highs and has declined in eight of the last nine weeks. While container rates are down 11% Q/Q, they continue to track +200% Y/Y (vs. +270% Y/Y in October), and rates are up ~6x compared to pre-COVID levels." — Baird Senior Research Analyst Garrett Holland said in a Dec. 1 email titled "Q4 Update: Just as Peak Looking Manageable, Omicron Shows Up"
9,500
North American Class 8 net orders dropped in November to 9,500 units, down 41% from October and down 82% year over year, FTR reported on Dec. 2. Orders were the lowest for the month of November since 1995. "The low order total in November is not due to any lack of demand for new equipment which is very high but rather due to the uncertainty in the supply chain," FTR officials said, adding that Class 8 orders now total a "still impressive" 393,000 units for the previous 12 months.
64 million
Transportation and logistics company Werner Enterprises Inc. signed a definitive agreement and closed on the acquisition of NEHDS, the company announced on Nov. 29. Purchase price: $64 million, which includes a $4 million earnout. NEHDS operates a fleet of more than 400 delivery trucks primarily in the Northeast and Midwest U.S. corridors. NEHDS delivers primarily big and bulky products using two-person delivery teams performing residential and commercial deliveries through a network of 19 cross dock, warehouse and customer facilities.
10.23 billion
The trucking industry moved 10.23 billion tons of freight in 2020, down from 11.84 billion tons in 2020. — American Trucking Associations' American Trucking Trends 2021, released on Dec. 2
94 billion
"Researchers from the U.S. Department of Energy's Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab), collaborating with UCLA and UC Berkeley researchers, make the case that the U.S. can retrofit diesel-electric trains with batteries in a way that is cost-competitive with diesel. Doing so would avoid these unnecessary deaths and health impacts and save the U.S. freight rail sector $94 billion over 20 years from reduced air pollution and carbon dioxide emissions," Berkeley Lab officials said in a Nov. 23 press release. … 'A rapid conversion of the freight-rail sector is not only technically feasible and cost-effective, it would bring immediate and lasting health and economic benefits to lower income communities,' said Natalie Popovich, Berkeley Lab scientist and the study's lead author. 'And it would provide a boost to our nation's efforts to curb climate change, especially considering that U.S. freight rail capacity is expected to double by 2050.'"
