PRIME NUMBERS

Tallies, totals and other trend data in the freight transportation realm

5/11/2022

-17.9

FTR’s Shippers Conditions Index (SCI) fell sharply in February to -17.9 after dropping to -10.1 in January, FTR reported on April 20. “Uncertainty abounds going forward as the war in Ukraine rages, supply chains remain disrupted in China and elsewhere, and fuel prices are likely to remain high,” FTR Vice President of Rail and Intermodal Todd Tranausky said. “This will put significant downward pressure on the index in March and many of those pressures add downward risk to the index through the balance of the year.” 

0.6

U.S. freight volumes slowed in March as reflected in the shipments component of the Cass Freight Index, which was “up just 0.6% y/y, slower than the 3.6% y/y growth in February,” Cass Information Systems Inc. officials reported on April 13. “The threat of freight recession has risen recently as services reopen, inflation presses up interest rates, and — though war-related effects are likely to be modest in the near-term — higher energy prices have an increasingly negative effect over time,” they said. “We’re certainly seeing a freight slowdown and spot market correction, but in our view, it is too early to call it a freight recession.”

2

Store-hailing service Robomart is partnering with ice cream producer Unilever this summer to pilot a fleet of Ice Cream Robomarts in Los Angeles. Using a “one-tap grocery ordering technology,” consumers will be able to hail Ice Cream Shop Robomarts to their location using Robomart’s proprietary mobile app, Robomart officials announced on May 5. “Putting a spin on the classic ice cream truck by bringing it to consumers on demand, we have pioneered a new way for everyone to get their favorite ice cream treats in as little as 2 minutes,” Robomart CEO and cofounder Ali Ahmed said.

3

Transportation and logistics provider Werner Enterprises Inc. was recognized by 50/50 Women on Boards™ as a “3+” company for having three or more women on its corporate board of directors, the company announced on May 10. Werner’s seven-director board includes 3 women.

12.06

FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index (TCI) “strengthened marginally” in February “despite a sizeable increase in fuel costs as freight rates were strong and freight demand improved,” FTR reported on April 14. The TCI increased to 12.06 from 11.46 in January. The record surge in diesel prices in March “almost certainly” will send the TCI measure into negative territory for the first time since May 2020, FTR officials added. 

17.3

North American transborder freight was valued at $112.5 billion in February, down 1.1% compared with January’s $113.7 billion, but up 17.3% from February 2021’s value ($95.86 billion) and up 17.2% compared with February 2020’s $95.95 billion, the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) reported on April 20. Railroads moved $15.3 billion of freight in February, up 19% from February 2021’s $12.8 billion, BTS reported. 

22

“The rails (NSC, UNP and CSX) are now making progress with T&E staffing needed to restore service and unlock volume growth. Another flare up in supply chain congestion could compromise ’22 outlooks though, and valuation multiple compression in a broader recession scare represents a key risk.” — Baird Equity Research’s Garrett Holland in a May 10 Transportation/Logistics report titled “Q1 Recap: Bearish Sentiment Got Ahead of Trends, but Cyclical Risks Remain”

24

Ferrocarril y Terminal del Valle de Mexico (Ferrovalle) is celebrating its 24th anniversary as a private company. Ferrovalle handles local switching and interchange traffic for Mexico's three line-haul carriers. The terminal railroad also owns Mexico's largest intermodal facility. In 1998, the Mexican government privatized Ferrocarriles Nacionales de Mexico, the national railway system — including the terminal railroad.

29 & 176

“Compared to the Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI) levels during this time in the previous three years, current OTVI is 16% lower than 2021, 39% higher than 2020, and 29% higher than 2019.” … And in a Mexico transportation market update: Cross-Border Outbound Tender Index Volumes continue to be strong. “Compared to the Outbound Tender Volume Index levels during this time in the previous two years, current OTVI is nearly equal with the same time in 2021, 122% higher than 2020 and 176% higher than 2019.” — Schneider National Inc.’s Shipping and Transportation Market Report, issued May 6

30

Although electric trucks have no direct tailpipe emissions, “CO2 production associated with vehicle, battery and electricity production would only result in a 30 percent decrease in CO2 emissions when compared to a standard diesel truck,” according to an American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI) study. The analysis of the environmental impacts of zero-emission trucks used federal and industry-sourced data to identify and compare full life-cycle CO2 emissions for a range of truck types, ATRI officials said in a newsletter issued May 6. 

49

The Equipment Leasing and Finance Association’s (ELFA) Monthly Leasing and Finance Index (MLFI-25), which reports economic activity from 25 companies representing a cross section of the equipment finance sector, showed their overall new business volume for March was $10.6 billion, up 14 percent year-over-year from new business volume in March 2021, ELFA officials said on April 25. Volume was up 49 percent month-to-month from $7.1 billion in February. “MLFI-25 participants end the first quarter of the year very favorably: new business volume continues to surge and portfolios are performing extremely well,” said ELFA President and CEO Ralph Petta. “This, while inflationary pressures, the war in Ukraine and supply chain disruptions continue unabated.”

50

“In recent quarterly earnings calls, rail-car manufacturers and lessors are upbeat about rail market prospects. Rail traffic is continuing to improve driving fleet utilization, new equipment orders and lease renewal rates. Fourth quarter 2021 freight rail-car orders grew by more than 50% from the third quarter. Orders in the fourth quarter of 2021 were 13,477 rail cars compared to 8,607 rail cars in the fourth quarter of 2020. The order backlog has increased sequentially for the past five quarters.” — April 20 newsletter from RESIDCO titled “Russian Ukrainian Invasion Upends Aero and Rail Outlooks.” RESIDCO is a transportation equipment lessor and asset management company that operates and manages a freight-car and locomotive fleet.

56

Preliminary North American Class 8 net orders fell in April to 15,400 units, down 28% month over month and down 56 percent year over year, FTR reported on May 4. “With backlogs largely full for the year, OEM’s have yet to open their order boards for 2023,” FTR officials said. “Given all the unknowns faced in today’s business environment OEMs are carefully monitoring their backlogs and continuing to evaluate monthly how far into the future they are willing to push them.” Added FTR Analyst-Commercial Vehicles Charles Roth: “April’s order total does not accurately reflect the current demand for new trucks, it does however reflect a market that is trying to minimize its exposure to the headwinds it could potentially face in 2023.”

623

On April 6, the Ports of Indiana-Burns Harbor opened the 2022 international shipping season with the arrival of the RESKO, a 623-foot bulk carrier coming from Europe through the St. Lawrence Seaway. Owned and operated by Polska Zegluga Morska P.P. Polsteam, the Bahamas-flagged Laker picked up its steel coils in the Netherlands before heading to the Ports of Indiana-Burns Harbor. The trip took about two weeks. Dock workers then unloaded more than 6,450 metric tons of steel coils at the port before the carrier continued to Milwaukee to discharge the ship’s remaining cargo.  

6 million

“High steel prices [two-thirds of the 6 million metric tons of pig iron imported by the U.S. came from Russia and Ukraine] are driving premiums on new rail-car deliveries. This new equipment inflation has created opportunities in the secondary markets, benefiting existing equipment values and allowing lessors to reprice lease rates up.” — May 9 newsletter from RESIDCO titled “A Storm of Fundamental Challenges Create Aero and Rail Opportunities.”

920 million

Fitch Ratings assigned an A+ rating to about $920 million of Port Authority of New York and New Jersey (PANYNJ) 230th and 231st consolidated bonds, adding that the authority’s ratings outlook is “stable,” the credit rating company announced on May 4. “The ratings reflect PANYNJ's mature, diverse and monopolistic transportation infrastructure asset base, which provides critical service to the strong New York City metro area, supported further by a conservative debt structure,” Fitch officials said. 

3.47 billion

XPO Logistics Inc. reported first-quarter 2022 revenue of $3.47 billion, compared with $2.99 billion for the same 2021 period, and the highest revenue of any quarter in company history, XPO officials said on May 9. 

 

 



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