'Certainty is what drives investment' — AAR's Ed Hamberger

— by Pat Foran, Editor

The winds of political change blew (and blew hard) this fall. Just how that change ultimately will manifest itself in D.C. — and the impact it'll have on the regulatory and legislative issues that matter most to the rail lobby — remains to be seen.

But even though there'll be some new congressional committee chairs come January, and a few new agendas that might hold sway in 2011, at least one sentiment probably won't change.

"There's been a recognition in all three power centers — the Administration, House and Senate — that certainty is what drives investment, and investment creates jobs," says Association of American Railroads President and CEO Ed Hamberger. "So, maybe there's a need for certainty."

For the rail lobby, a little certainty could come in the form of closure on the "balanced regulation" legislation front, specifically S. 2889 — the Surface Transportation Board Reauthorization Act of 2009, which aims to address the economic regulatory system for U.S. railroads. If passed, it'd represent the first comprehensive reauthorization of the STB since it was established under the ICC Termination Act of 1995.

Many pundits believe the prevailing political winds have made S. 2889's chances of passing pretty slim in '11. But Hamberger expects Senate Commerce Committee Chair Jay Rockefeller (D-W.Va.) to see the bill through, anti-trust component and all. The goal remains to develop a piece of legislation that all stakeholders could support ... and for constructive dialogue to rule the rhetorical roost.

"We entered into negotiations with the Senate Commerce Committee in good faith, and we'll continue to do so," Hamberger says.

Also on the rails' regulatory radar: The STB plans to hold a public hearing on "certain rail regulation exemptions" on Feb. 24, 2011. The aim of the hearing, as industry analyst and Progressive Railroading columnist Tony Hatch put it in a Nov. 2 email missive, "is not to reduce the STB's oversight" of railroads. Regarding potential oversight changes, the rail message remains: "If it ain't broke, don't fix it."

"The Staggers Act has worked," says Hamberger, adding that Class Is didn't earn their cost of capital in 2009 yet continue to invest billions of dollars in the rail network, whatever the economic weather. "These investments lead to jobs."

Given the economic and political uncertainty, the "rail investment = jobs" message ought to continue to resonate in D.C. (and beyond) in the year ahead.