AAR: U.S. rail traffic rose in March over 2020, but pandemic impacts comparisons

U.S. railroads logged 2,586,489 carloads and intermodal units in March, a 14.2% increase from traffic levels in the same month a year ago, according to Association of American Railroads (AAR) data.

For some rail traffic categories, percentage changes for March compared with March 2021 are inflated because of widespread shutdowns — and subsequent large reduction in rail volumes — due to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, which impacted many economic sectors last year at this time.

Railroads last month hauled 1,156,158 carloads, up 4.1%, and 1,430,331 containers and trailers, up 24% from the same month a year ago.

Eleven of the 20 carload commodity categories tracked by the AAR each month posted gains during March. They included grain, up 22.1%; coal, up 7.6%; and motor vehicles and parts, up 16.3%. Commodities that posted declines included chemicals, down 4.8%; petroleum and petroleum products, down 8.5%; and crushed stone, sand and gravel, down 4%.

Excluding coal, carloads were up 2.9% in March. Excluding coal and grain, carloads were up only 350 units.

"When much of the economy shut down around this time last year, rail volumes plummeted, too. We have to take that into account when comparing rail traffic this year to last year," said AAR Senior Vice President John Gray in a press release."That said, rail traffic has clearly rebounded from last year's depths."

Recent signs of strength in manufacturing are good signs for railroads, since rail volumes are highly correlated with manufacturing output, Gray added.

For the first three months of 2021, U.S. railroads moved 2,911,097 carloads, down 2.6%, and 3,619,546 intermodal units, up 13.2% compared with the same period a year ago.