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The results of a recent rail shipper survey must be disconcerting to railroads. A vast majority of the respondents expected to divert some of their freight traffic to other transportation modes, according to Bank of America Securities L.L.C.’s third-quarter survey of about 1,400 rail shippers.

About 66 percent of the respondents said they would divert traffic from rail compared with 44 percent in the firm’s second-quarter survey, 53 percent in a first-quarter survey and 59 percent in a fourth-quarter 2006 survey. In total, about 71 percent of basic industry respondents noted they were actively diverting or planning to divert some traffic and 75 percent of manufacturing shippers said they were contemplating diversions.

Domestic intermodal shippers indicated they were diverting 11 percent of their moves to truckload carriers, while carload shippers said they were diverting 15 percent of their rail traffic to other modes. In addition, other shippers noted diversions to barges, transloads and other transportation alternatives.

“On a lagged basis, the railroads may be impacting, at least somewhat, primary demand for their services,” Bank of America Securities analysts said in a survey summary, noting roads that are “pulling too hard on the pricing lever” might be driving off business — perhaps permanently.

In terms of rates, respondents expected an average increase of 5.1 percent in the next six to 12 months, a slightly higher price hike compared with the Wall Street firm’s second-quarter survey. However, about half the respondents said railroads were more willing to negotiate rate increases than in the past.

Survey results also showed mixed views about the current state of rail service. About 64 percent of the respondents said service hadn’t changed during the past three months, up about 19 percent compared with second-quarter survey results. And only 13 percent said service had worsened. But 23 percent of the respondents noted service had improved compared with 35 percent in the previous survey.

“Keep in mind, U.S. Class Is’ service has likely benefited from soft volume trends, which have been present throughout 2007,” analysts said. “This likely explains the high percentage of shippers who are reporting no change in rail service.”

Meanwhile, shippers’ economic outlook hasn’t changed much. About half the respondents said the economy is stabilizing, 22 percent claimed it’s strengthening and 30 percent noted it’s weakening — meaning “shippers’ sentiment is virtually unchanged” from the previous survey, Bank of America Securities said.

Of the firm’s third-quarter survey respondents, 23 percent have transportation budgets exceeding $150 million while 27 percent have a budget between $76 million and $150 million; 21 percent, between $26 million and $75 million; 14 percent, between $5 million and $25 million; and 16 percent, less than $5 million. Fifty-four percent of the respondents are basic industrial shippers; 27 percent are involved in manufacturing; 10 percent are food product and retail shippers; 7 percent are involved in various industries; and 2 percent are mining/utility industry shippers.