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Rail News: Rail Industry Trends
7/24/2009
Rail News: Rail Industry Trends
Longbow Securities survey: Rail-car demand remains sluggish
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Rail-car demand isn’t picking up, according to Longbow Securities L.L.C.’s July survey of rail-car lessors. Eighty-seven percent of survey respondents reported a decrease in year-over-year demand. In addition, demand on average is down 31 percent since last year while car utilization rates fell to 89 percent from June’s 91 percent.
The 12-month outlook worsened, as well. Twenty percent of the respondents expected lower car demand compared with zero respondents in June’s survey, Longbow Research said in a survey summary. Those projecting higher demand remained relatively stable at 27 percent vs. June’s 25 percent.
Average lease rates were down about 30 percent compared with July 2008 rates, a further decline from June’s 20 percent year-over-year drop, Longbow Research said.
Respondents “had thought pricing reached a bottom in June,” according to the summary.
Meanwhile, well-capitalized lessors reported they were waiting for CIT Group Inc., Babcock & Brown Ltd., AIG Inc. and GE Capital to start offering larger portfolios of cars more frequently in the used car market, Longbow Research said. Respondents said transactions remain few and far between because buyers and sellers can’t agree on price, and financing costs are prohibitive.
The 12-month outlook worsened, as well. Twenty percent of the respondents expected lower car demand compared with zero respondents in June’s survey, Longbow Research said in a survey summary. Those projecting higher demand remained relatively stable at 27 percent vs. June’s 25 percent.
Average lease rates were down about 30 percent compared with July 2008 rates, a further decline from June’s 20 percent year-over-year drop, Longbow Research said.
Respondents “had thought pricing reached a bottom in June,” according to the summary.
Meanwhile, well-capitalized lessors reported they were waiting for CIT Group Inc., Babcock & Brown Ltd., AIG Inc. and GE Capital to start offering larger portfolios of cars more frequently in the used car market, Longbow Research said. Respondents said transactions remain few and far between because buyers and sellers can’t agree on price, and financing costs are prohibitive.
