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The two-year drought is over for rail-car builders. That's the prediction Economic Planning Associates Inc. (EPA) makes in its recently released quarterly "Outlook for Rail Cars" report.


In the third quarter, car orders increased to 10,135 compared with 6,973 second-quarter orders.


"And, industry sources inform us that fourth-quarter orders were off to a strong start in October, " EPA said in its executive summary.


Based on orders and current backlogs, EPA now predicts 19,300 car deliveries in 2002, which still would be the lowest level since 1987.


However, low mortgage rates will stimulate housing starts, fueling lumber and wood-product moves; a revived manufacturing sector will spur raw-material moves; and healthy import and export markets will promote intermodal moves, EPA said. That bodes well for generating intermodal, flat, centerbeam, box and tank car, and covered hopper orders next year.


Car deliveries then should rebound to 29,200 units in 2003, 39,800 units in 2004 and 49,800 units in 2005, and reach 59,500 units by 2007, EPA said.